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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 03/18 11:44
Traders Pull Up the Reins on the Livestock Market's Rally
Traders aren't aggressively supporting the livestock markets Tuesday. They
want to see how the market's fundamentals are going to shape up this week
before they push prices higher.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's a lackluster, dullish day for the livestock complex as all three of the
livestock markets are trading lower into Tuesday's noon hour. As the market
hopes to see better fundamental support later this week, traders are hitting
the pause button on the market's rally as they wait to see what develops
fundamentally. May corn is down 1/2 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is
down $3.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 301.85 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Traders seem to be fearing the market's resistance at $201, which was
established late in January. Also, without knowing how cash cattle prices are
going to fair this week, the market seems to be merely chopping sideways. April
live cattle are down $0.15 at $204.87, June live cattle are down $0.60 at
$200.47 and August live cattle are down $0.50 at $198.35. The cash cattle
market remains silent with no bids having surfaced yet and it's likely again
this week that trade will be delayed until Thursday, if not, potentially even
Friday. Asking prices are noted in the South at $205 plus, but are still not
established in the North.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.82 ($322.98) and select up $1.43
($309.33) with a movement of 65 loads (33.66 loads of choice, 11.20 loads of
select, 7.20 loads of trim and 13.34 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
After reaching yet again new contract highs on Monday, the feeder cattle
complex is following the lead of the live cattle market as it's also trading
slightly lower. Today's lower/holding tone seems to be stemming from the fact
that traders want to ensure that fed cash cattle prices are indeed going to
trade higher before they encourage the contracts to trade higher. We can't lose
sight of the fact that the contracts are either trading at contract highs or
steady with the highs made in January. Meanwhile, feeder cattle demand remains
incredible in the countryside as buyers know that spring is nearing and that
it's going to be turn out time in just a matter of weeks. March feeders are
steady at $284.62, April feeders are down $0.10 at $284.10 and May feeders are
down $0.42 at $284.87.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is also trading lower into Tuesday's noon hour as the
market stalemates, seeming unable to muster up enough support to encourage
traders to take on the market's resistance at $88.00 in the spot April
contract. April lean hogs are down $1.02 at $87.05, June lean hogs are down
$2.40 at $96.72 and July lean hogs are down $1.95 at $98.10. Meanwhile, it's
also not helping that pork cutout values are down slightly, mainly again
because of the $5.37 decline on the belly that's weighing heavily on the
carcass price.
The projected lean hog index for 3/17/2025 is up $0.04 at $89.32, and the
actual index hog index for 3/14/2025 is down $0.27 at $89.28. Hog prices are
higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.62 with a weighted average
price of $90.29, ranging from $86.00 to $92.50 on 2,915 head and a five-day
rolling average of $90.34. Pork cutouts total 133.98 loads with 115.61 loads of
pork cuts and 18.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.21, $97.44.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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