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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/09 10:54

   Grain Futures in the Green Midday Tuesday

   Corn trade is 9 to 10 cents higher; beans are 22 to 37 cents higher and 
wheat is flat to 6 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn trade is 9 to 10 cents higher; beans are 22 to 37 cents higher and 
wheat is flat to 6 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow 
down 15 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.25 lower. Interest rate products are 
weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up $0.60. Livestock trade is mostly 
lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold $3.00 higher.

CORN:

   Corn trade is 9 to 10 cents higher at midday Tuesday with trade gapping 
higher on condition declines, short-term forecasts and ideas of good commercial 
support as we head towards the WASDE report later in the week with action just 
off the highs at midday. Short-term forecasts show drier weather for most in 
the near term with higher-than-normal temperatures for the center and western 
parts of the belt with moderation expected the second week. The export wire 
showed some life again Tuesday with 132,000 metric tons sold to China for new 
crop. Ethanol margins will continue to be limited by driving demand and 
seasonal slowdowns with unleaded futures just off six-month lows to crimp 
blending margins if sustained. Basis will be watched to see how much further 
strength fades, especially with the board rally and harvest starts in the 
South. Weekly crop progress showed good to excellent down 3% to 58% good to 
excellent, with 16% poor to very poor while 90% was silking versus 93% on 
average, 45% in the dough, and 49% on average, and 6% dented vs. 9% on average. 
On the September chart, support is the fresh low at $5.61 1/2 scored two weeks 
ago with lower Bollinger Band just below that at $5.60, with trade holding back 
above the 20-day at $5.99 and the upper Bollinger Band is the next round up at 
$6.27, which we are just below. 

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean trade is 22 to 37 cents higher at midday with trade gapping higher 
as well on weather concerns and expectations of improved demand potentially 
into fall. Meal is $12.50 to $13.50 higher and oil is narrowly mixed. Biodiesel 
margins remain positive but narrowing in recent days. South America is on 
post-harvest footing for shipping with their advantage to persist until 
September, while the bulk of the U.S. is heading into the start of podfill 
season with warmer and drier weather for much of the belt this week before 
moderating after the mixed weekend rains with good to excellent 1% lower to 59% 
good to excellent, and 11% poor to very poor with 89% blooming versus 88% on 
average, and 61% setting pods versus 66% on average. Basis is fading a bit at 
processors and exporters in recent days as early harvest in the south draws 
closer. On the September soybean chart, support is the 20-day at $13.99 which 
we bounced off last week, with the upper Bollinger Band at $15.10 as the next 
round up, which we got close to overnight before fading a touch.

WHEAT:

   Wheat trade is flat to 6 cents higher at midday with wheat following the gap 
in row crops higher before turning to two-sided, rangebound action with trade 
looking for confirmation on U.S. demand as spring wheat harvest gets going, 
along with how bushels flow out of the Black Sea and Europe short term. Weather 
in the Plains looks warmer and drier this week with moisture needing to build 
before planting time with late harvest lagging at 86% harvested versus 91% on 
average, and spring wheat 9% harvested versus 19% on average, with conditions 
off 6% on good to excellent to 64%, and poor to very poor at 8%, while spring 
wheat sees heat with harvest getting going and steady weekly conditions 
expected on the weekly report with maturity still well behind normal. The 
dollar remains near the highs which is likely to limit exports short term. The 
KC September chart has resistance at the 20-day above the market at $8.57 which 
we faded from yet again, with the lower Bollinger Band at $8.22 the next round 
down, which we held above so far.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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