DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 05/09 06:23
There is Much Uncertainty in the Markets
Live cattle continue to chop sideways while feeder cattle are trending
lower. The anticipation for cash trade week has become less optimistic. Hog
futures had a nice turnaround from the lows, but the buying interest failed to
maintain the highs, resulting in a mixed close Wednesday.
Robin Schmahl
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Lower Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $218.96 -$1.63*
Hogs: Lower Futures: Higher Lean Equiv: $105.18 +$2.20**
*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer
revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent
changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Live cattle futures struggled Wednesday as the market fundamentals are not
painting a bright picture. Some of the optimism for higher cash again this week
has waned with steady money possibly not a potential. The weakness of boxed
beef Wednesday was not what bullish traders wanted to see as it raised concerns
over demand as we move into the grilling season. Choice boxed beef declined
$1.82 while select fell $4.09. The packers may reduce slaughter to try to
improve their margins. Heavier weights leave more beef supply available to the
market, which has substantially reduced the price of beef trim compared to a
year ago. This is keeping the market where it is and limiting upside potential.
Feeder cattle have been trending lower eliminating half the gain realized in
the second half of April.
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